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Media visibility of the primary election candidates for the Italian Partito Democratico leadership. Analysis with Bayes-Swarm data

Paolo Brunori, Matteo Zandi, Riccardo Govoni, Alessandro Bonazzi, Giulio Isacco Lampronti

November 2007

The article is pubished in the first 2008 issue of Il Politico University of Pavia217(1)


Primary elections are quite unusual in Italy, Partito Democratico (PD) being the first party choosing its leader by a popular election. PD was founded by the unification of two major italian parties, the Democratici di Sinistra and Margherita parties. In this short comment we analyze the results of this election focusing on the media visibility of the three main candidates: Walter Veltroni, Rosy Bindi and Enrico Letta. With our dataset we are able to measure how many times their names appear on online newspapers, blogs and news agencies. We believe our sample represents these candidates’ media visibility with a good approximation and we try to relate these values with the election results. Notably our indicator appears to foretell real final percentages with great accuracy. lmente ottenuti appare come un risultato di notevole interesse.


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